I Don't Understand Logic
Well, maybe it's not exactly logic, probably more like statistics. How 'bout I just tell you what I don't get and you can tell me what it is. It's interesting, that brings up another philosophic problem, how can I possibly know something I don't know? I can't tell you what I don't know, because I don't know it. Anyways, on to what I don't know.
I can best illustrate this with an example about roller coasters. Let's say that statistics have been compiled for a given roller coaster and that there is a one in a million chance that the coaster cars lose their grip on the track and fly-off mid-ride. Let's now say that the roller coaster has been on 990,000 successful "runs;" no cars have flown off and the ride is still running well. It seems to me that the people who ride on the coaster on the next 10,000 runs should be very nervous that the cars will fly off the track. If the odds say that there is a one in a million chance and 990,000 tests have been run without any cars flying off the track shouldn't that mean that it will happen soon?
This is why I don't understand logic or statistics or whatever it is. This makes sense to me, but it usually doesn't make sense to others.
When I was a kid, I used to be afraid of roller coasters for this very reason. I thought that, sooner or later, the odds said that cars were going to fly off the track. My friends would try to convince me to go on the rides by saying, "the cars have never flown off the track before," or, as in the case above, "there's a one in a million chance of it happening." Of course, I would reply to this with exactly what I said above, "if there's a one in a million chance and it's never happened before, isn't it due to happen?"
So ya, that's my logical conundrum. It's probably easily explained away by any logician or statistician, but I still wonder about it.
I can best illustrate this with an example about roller coasters. Let's say that statistics have been compiled for a given roller coaster and that there is a one in a million chance that the coaster cars lose their grip on the track and fly-off mid-ride. Let's now say that the roller coaster has been on 990,000 successful "runs;" no cars have flown off and the ride is still running well. It seems to me that the people who ride on the coaster on the next 10,000 runs should be very nervous that the cars will fly off the track. If the odds say that there is a one in a million chance and 990,000 tests have been run without any cars flying off the track shouldn't that mean that it will happen soon?
This is why I don't understand logic or statistics or whatever it is. This makes sense to me, but it usually doesn't make sense to others.
When I was a kid, I used to be afraid of roller coasters for this very reason. I thought that, sooner or later, the odds said that cars were going to fly off the track. My friends would try to convince me to go on the rides by saying, "the cars have never flown off the track before," or, as in the case above, "there's a one in a million chance of it happening." Of course, I would reply to this with exactly what I said above, "if there's a one in a million chance and it's never happened before, isn't it due to happen?"
So ya, that's my logical conundrum. It's probably easily explained away by any logician or statistician, but I still wonder about it.
posted by Stu at 11:42 PM
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